Top Risks 2017: The Geopolitical Recession

Eurasia Group's annual global risk forecast is out. Top of the issues is no doubt US President-elect Donald Trump. His call for an 'independent' and 'make America great again' resonates with much of the population. Many of the middle/lower class populace are disgruntled by the elites and upper class touting the benefits of globalization for a long time. Many of them are left behind while the elites and upper class reaped much benefits from lower interest rates and money printing. Mr Trump have also pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and pulling back on various global climate initiatives, making key stances on focusing on America first.

Many similar sentiments are arising throughout the world with events such as Brexit, Italy referendum failure, Philippines pursuing an independent foreign policy, Germany having issues with migration and terrorist activities.

Notables includes the leadership transition in China later this year, military projection and conflicts with regional neighbors continues with South China Sea issues. Russia seems on the rise again after resolving Syrian issues and seemingly on positive footing with the US President Elect.

Locally, Singapore is in a flux as well. Headlines includes weaker economic outlook, lack of clarity in PAP political leadership transitions, missteps in oversight and regulation of the banking and financial industry, political hot potatoes with China from the Prime Minister's strong stance on Trans-Pacific Partnership and South China Sea issue. China detaining a contingent of military tanks in transit which is yet unresolved. Rise of China's multi-billion dollar investments in regional infrastructure projects in direct competition with Singapore.

Link: Top Risks 2017: The Geopolitical Recession